Nordeas kommentar til GENMAB´s regnskab

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

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"Genmab just reported FY2014 numbers as well as 2015 guidance. 2014 full-year revenues reached DKK 850m and came in at DKK 265m. Hence Genmab reached the high end of its guided topline range of DKK 800-875m and beat its EBIT guidance range of DKK 175-250m. This is very solid in our view - even despite slow Arzerra sales in 2014. At a first glance, 2015 guidance looks a bit soft on the topline where Genmab guides for revenues of DKK 650-725m vs Nordea at DKK 897m and consensus at DKK 852m. HOWEVER Genmab is not including approval milestones for Dara, only regulatory filing milestones as described in the annual report. An approval milestone could in our view easily be USD 25-50m or DKK 165-330m. If we assume a "mid-point" of USD 37.5m or DKK 250m, then a comparable guidance to our forecasts would be DKK 900-975m. Well above where we are and where consensus is; the uncertainty being the potential timing and size of Dara approval milestones. Profit wise, Genmab guides DKK 200-275m in EBIT for 2015 vs our DKK 264m and consensus at DKK 240m, but that includes a reversal of a one-time/one-off GSK liability of DKK 175m after the closure of the new deal with Novartis- we had not adjusted for that, neither had consensus, we believe. The deal was concluded earlier today, so difficult to adjust for in forecasts before completion. IMPORTANTLY in our view, Genmab is including filing milestones for Dara, which indicates they have strong confidence in J&J to file for approval with Dara in EU and US. Guidance might disappoint the market a bit at first glance, but we emphasize again that it depends on which milestones are included/excluded and we believe it' very important import with clinical progress and likely filings for Dara. We remain buyers".