Tror Vestas har nået bunden
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enig, enig ... men jeg lægger blødt ud ... så dem jeg har nu beholder jeg ...
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Jeg blev i går bedt om at vise hvordan et shortsalg ser ud, og vise udsigten for Vestas. Ud over dette, viser det også, om hvorvidt bunden er nået.
For nogle af jer, er det måske ABC, men det er lavet til en ny, og dem er der også nogle stykker af herinde, trods alt. Men det bør fremgå, ret tydeligt, om nye investore skal gå ind nu.
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Julegaven er allerede pakket ind - kurs 50 når aftalen med MHI er indgået
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Vestas takes long view as South African project breaks ground
With its first large project due to break ground on Monday, all the time and resources Vestas has invested in South Africa over the past decade have "certainly been worth it", says Phylip Leferink, vice president of sales for Benelux and South Africa.
Last week the Danish turbine giant clinched its first firm order as part of the initial round of renewables projects awarded by the South African government last December.
On Monday ground will be broken at the 67MW Hopefield project in Western Cape, with Vestas slated to deliver and install 37 of its V100-1.8MW turbines from early next year for local developer Umoya Energy.
Vestas was also named preferred supplier for the 73MW Noblesfontein project, developed by Spain's Gestamp, although no firm order has yet been secured.
Vestas had its name attached to two of the eight first-round wind projects, and then five of the seven projects awarded in the second round this spring. That gives it a 36% share of the turbine market thus far under the government's new renewables programme.
South Africa faces the same challenges as any new market, Leferink tells Recharge, with the most obvious being that "wind experience is not that widely available".
"So you're looking at a situation where you need to provide a lot of support to your transportation companies, train companies and so on."
He declines to divulge the cost such teething pains may add to early projects, but adds that "inevitably there will be new entrants in all the supporting services we require ... which will automatically bring down prices".
One of the biggest hurdles for both developers and manufacturers is the government's strict local-content requirements, with job creation one of the central pillars of the country's renewables ambitions.
Leferink says the 25% threshold demanded by the first round is "not a challenge we can't overcome" through things like foundations, roads and grid works.
The official threshold for the second round is also 25%, although the government has "recommended" that developers shoot for 35%.
Though few concrete details have been provided about future rounds, the level is expected to rise to at least 45%, posing a significant challenge for both wind and solar developers.
Vestas entered South Africa in 2001, but, after installing two small turbines early on, has been waiting for the market to come into its own, holding on through several significant policy pivots by the government.
In addition to the V47-660kW and V66/1750kW turbines it erected nearly a decade ago, among the first in sub-Saharan Africa, Vestas also worked with state-owned utility Eskom on "another sizeable project", which was "shelved by Eskom", Leferink says.
That project "will be brought back into the equation later on, probably 2013-2014".
Although Vestas may use its position and connections in South Africa as a springboard into other sub-Saharan countries, South Africa itself is a large enough future market to justify all of the company's investment to date, Leferink claims.
A number of coastal markets - including Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Namibia - have the wind resource to make them interesting in the future. But their pace of progress will vary considerably.
"Kenya could be very interesting in a very short period of time," he says. "Somewhere like Mozambique is going to take a long time."
Karl-Erik Stromsta
Published: Thursday, November 22 2012 -
Det undrer mig fortsat nogen af de store danske "muskelhunde" ikke kan se guldet i Vestas der ligger lige foran deres fødder og er klar til at samle op?
Men tålmodighed de kan jo ha købt optil 4,99 % og resten er snart klar til overdragelse via diverse banker Så er der vist dømt marsraket med lysets hastighed ))
Shorterne vil således kunne tabe adskellige 100 % på blot en meddelse. Hvis jeg var dem så kom jeg ud i en fart men ok syndikatet styrer jo det der så det skal de nok klare, altså meget langsomt for de tjener max. m.m. der kommer et bud fra hel anden kant !
Houston we got a boggie!
FIF
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yeah, måske ... for øvrigt har kloge Thorleif Jackson haft et optimistisk kig på Vestas i sin blog ...
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Hvis i tror Vestas har nået bunden, hvorfor så ikke vente og se om det passer?
Hvorfor købe nu og ikke vente på trendvendingen? F.eks. til kursen kommer over 200 SMA elle EMA?
Hvorfor er det i tager chancen? Det er vel ingen skam at gå glib af 5-6% i stigninger hvis man efterfølgende er med på en bull trend med 100% stigning?
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jeg har ventet ... desuden ligger jeg meget stille ud ...
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Hejsa Hjulmand
Kan du ikke lave nogle nye grafer, hvor folk kan se at de begynder at se bedre ud. Og at vi snart får en Pendora i Vestas
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Hej Topspiller
Jo, det kan jeg godt, og der er svage positive tegn.
Dagens udvikling kan være starten på noget rigtig positivt, og situationen er spændt. Men det kan også være nok en skuffelse i rækken af skuffelser. Vi ved det ikke, endnu. Det vi ved, er, at vi skal følge signalerne. De af os der allerede er inden, prøver at ramme bunden for at reducerer vores GAK, men det bør ikke bruges som indgang for investorer der først nu er på vej ind. Ikke før der er K1, bør nye investorer gå ind i Vestas, og der er vi ikke endnu. Måske i morgen, måske om 2 år, men ikke i skrivende stund.
Hjulmand
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