Aktiesnakken — Marts 2017
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Mere Pareto: Fine tuning salmon price estimates
Q1 17 spot price came in at NOK 64.8/kg, NOK 3.2 below our estimate. We reduce our Q2 17 spot price assumption from NOK 60 to 58, and our 2018e contract price assumption from NOK 60 to NOK 58. In total this gives earnings revisions of around -3%.
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China and US will eat all supply growth
Limited and controlled supply growth in a market with strong demand is still the main reason being positive on the sector. Our demand estimates indicate that the US and greater China will eat almost all the production growth going forward, hence volumes into EU will be stable and prices will remain high.
Marginal supply growthWe estimate a moderate annual supply growth of 2-6% the next 4 years, due to strict regulatory limitations in Norway and Chile, c
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Nordea er største køber i Bakka i år. De køber også stort op i dag. Banken er samtidigt bank for Bakkafrost og datterselskaberne.
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Nordea-analyse senker laksen : http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2017/03/Nordea-analyse-senker-laksen
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Bakkafrost er i samme kurs som før algeopblomstringen i Chile... Jeg finder fiskestangen frem igen.
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Fra analysen: Based on the negative market
reaction, we cut our 2017-19 salmon price forecasts by NOK 3 per kilo
to NOK 57, NOK 51 and NOK 50, respectively. Accordingly, we also cut
our target prices and maintain our general Sell ratings for the bulk of the
companies listed. We are now 16% lower than consensus on 2018E EBIT
and see a risk for negative estimate revisions. -
Det er stadig historisk høje priser og vil give flotte bundlinjer både på Færøerne samt i Norge. Scottish Salmon Company vil få det svært.
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Paretos kursmå fra i dag:
GSF NOK 92
MHG EUR 19,60 (NOK 179,70)
BAKKA NOK 350
SALM NOK 277
LSG NOK 578
AUSS NOK 91
NRS NOK 178
SSC NOK 9,66 (GBP 0,91) -
Kg. pris næste uge er sidelæns eller lidt ned : http://ilaks.no/prisen-siger-nedover-for-paskelaksen/
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Imponerende at der kan være så store forskelle på kursmål fra samme dag.
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