Aktiesnakken — November 2020
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Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
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20 min
#Turkey Lira in free fall. Now world's worst currency in 2020 w/ -30.2% YTD.https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1323631725948375048/photo/1 -
Steen Jakobsen
@Steen_Jakobsen
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1 t
Steen Chronicle I am here to remind you that no one knows what happens next | Saxo Group https://home.saxo/content/articles/macro/steen-chronicle-i-am-here-to-remind-you-that-no-one-knows-what-happens-next-03112020
via @saxobank -
Bloomberg Markets
@markets
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14 min
U.S. stocks open higher https://bloom.bg/3mSvKFZ -
Så selv uden direkte centralbank finansiering, så hjælpes statsbudgetterne af centralbankernes opkøb over to omgange: I første omgang lavere renter (eller rente loft) over Statsgælden. Og i anden omgang som "overskud" hos centralbanken som udbetales til Staten.
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REX, der er stort set intet scenarie, hvor Trump vinder præsident posten, og hvor Demokraterne vinder Senatet. Ligeledes er det stort set uden for mulighed at Republikanerne vinder Repræsentanternes hus. Hvis Biden vinder så får man blå bølge i 81% af tilfældene. Men det er rigtigt som udgangspunkt at man skal gange 0,97 (sandsynligheden for Biden sejr) med de 0,81 (sandsynligheden for et Demokratisk Senat) hvis man skal have grund sandsynligheden for en blå bølje.
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Bloomberg Markets @markets
Investors pulled record $1.4 billion from the world's biggest credit ETF at start of week https://bloom.bg/3mQLn10 -
Peter Garnry
@petergarnry
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40 min
Markets are setting themselves up for a Biden/‘Blue Wave’ scenario with USD down, VIX down, Chinese tech bid, US tech underperforming broader market and bonds are off. If prediction markets are wrong it will be a very volatile 24 hours... -
Ja. Helt enig med Peter.... Første rigtige pil bliver nok Florida. De ligger på østkysten, tæller hurtigt op, og er helt afgørende. Lægger Biden godt der så er det game over for Trump. Ligger Trump godt der, så bliver det spændende og markederne vil få nerver.
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Til dem som bliver oppe og ser valget (og eventuelt handler), så er der her 2 "cheat sheets": https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
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Og overblikket: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
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Tusinde tak bgadk. Sov godt nok du kommer så langt.
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