Nvidia og aktiekorrrektion. Risikolysten er helt i bund
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How Nvidia GPUs Compare To Google's And Amazon's AI Chips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBmOgQi4Fr0 -
Vedhaeftet figurer fra marketscreener.com og ycharts.com.
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Michael Burry: The Cardinal Sign of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-cardinal-sign-of-a-bubble-supply"The five public horseman of today's AI boom - Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and Oracle - are joined by several adolescent startups in promising nearly $3 trillion in spending on AI infrastructure over the next 3 years. Investors absolutely love it."
"And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it. Its name is Nvidia."
'Big Short' investor Burry targets AI boom with new blog after hedge fund closure - https://www.reuters.com/business/big-short-investor-burry-launches-newsletter-after-closing-hedge-fund-2025-11-24/
Er rønnebærrene sure eller har kejseren ingen klæder?
Vedhæftet figur med capex for nogle af AI-giganterne. Log-skala. EURmio.
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Nvidia shares fall 4% on report Meta will use Google AI chips
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/nvidia-shares-today-google-meta-ai-chip-report.html -
Man bør være forsigtig med, at afskrive Nvidia på baggrund af Meta-nyheden.
Nvidia sælger i øjeblikket (november 2025) alt, hvad de kan producere af AI-GPU’er (H100, Blackwell og kommende Rubin).
Efterspørgslen overstiger udbuddet markant, ordrebogen overstiger 500 mia. USD for 2025-2026, og Jensen Huang har gentagne gange bekræftet, at GPU’er er udsolgt langt ud i fremtiden.
Diversificeringen fra Meta til Google TPUs fra 2026 vil højst reducere Nvidias andel af Metas budget fra 80-90 % til ca. 70 %.
Den samlede globale efterspørgsel fra øvrige kunder (Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI m.fl.) vil dog fortsat opsuge al tilgængelig kapacitet.
Konklusion:
Begrænsningen ligger i produktionen, ikke i efterspørgslen.Ifølge min vurdering vil det tage mindst 2-3 år mere, før tech-giganter som Meta, Google og Tesla kan producere og deploye in-house AI-chips i mærkbare mængder, der udfordrer Nvidias dominans på skala.
Dette skyldes udfordringer i chip-design, testning, produktionsramp-up og integration i eksisterende økosystemer.
Nvidia vil imidlertid fortsat lede gennem kontinuerlig innovation, selvom pres fra konkurrenter kan øges på længere sigt (3-5 år frem).
Implikationer:
På kort sigt (2026) forbliver Nvidia usåret, da demand overstiger supply. På længere bane kan Google (via TPUs) og Tesla (via AI5/AI6) presse priser og markedsandele, men kun hvis deres chips matcher Nvidias CUDA-økosystem. Metas indsats vil sandsynligvis supplere, ikke erstatte Nvidia.Dette understøtter et 12-måneders kursmål på 310 USD for NVDA, ikke en købsanbefaling, da risikoprofiler varierer.
Foretag egen analyse baseret på markedstrends og personlig situation.
Its a no-brainer as AJ on X say:
https://x.com/alojoh/status/1993318577261216114?s=20 -
Servicemeddelelse: Tryk på skemaet for at forstørre.
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AJ Investment Research (@alojoh) on X
This is the real story about Google and Nvidia right now It’s a war of narratives. A bit of background first – stage 1. 1) Google suffered from negative sentiment since the ChatGPT moment: “AI will destroy Google’s monopoly in Search” was the word on the street. 2) This
X (formerly Twitter) (x.com)
This is the real story about Google and Nvidia right now
It's a war of narratives.
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Alphabet: Gemini Momentum and Possible Meta TPU Deal Underscore AI Capability
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/alphabet-strong-gemini-momentum-possible-meta-tpu-deal-underscore-ai-capabilityNvidia and AMD: Maintain Fair Value Estimate Amid Reports of Meta's Negotiations to Buy Google TPUs
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/nvidia-amd-maintain-fair-value-estimate-amid-reports-metas-negotiations-buy-google-tpus
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