Novo Nordisk aktieanalyse! Købsmulighed?
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AI-genereret transcript til dem, der foretrækker at læse:
I was looking at stocks trading at 52
weeks low going into 2025 and I was very
surprised to find nvo nvo was an amazing
company it's still an amazing company
it's down 20% on the month down 40% over
the last 6 months it's still up over
200% over the last 5 years but I was
just shocked to find nvo down 40% over
the last 6 months trading at 52 weeks
low it surprised me and it made me very
curious to do more resarch try to find
out why nvo is going down so much if nvo
is presenting some kind of a
generational buying opportunity as I
like to say or is it some kind of a trap
and maybe it's going much much slower
maybe it's still overv valued so I was
very curious to find out I did some
research I'm going to share it with you
guys here in the video I hope you enjoy
it I hope you get some value if you do
please press the like button and let me
know what you think in the comments now
I have to remind you that I'm not a
pharmaceutical expert to any expert in
this industry I try to stick to things
that I understand the only analysis I
did was on fizer and it hasn't done too
well it's been flat to gone down like
three or 4% the dividend is still good
still solid company but that's only a
pharmaceutical stock I've done and I try
to stay away from them and that's it so
I'm going to give you a sober analysis
of whatever research I did on nvo and I
hope you enjoy it but from my
understanding the main reason why nvo
dropped 20% over over the last months
and over the last week or two is because
of the recent drug kria I believe this
is how you pronounce it is their next
Generation obesity drug candidate after
Wei wovi is their latest one with the
glp1 injections and stuff apparently
they have a new one that's coming out is
their next Generation drug and nvo has
expected the weight loss to generate of
around 25% so they expected a 25% weight
loss rate but it didn't happen patients
overall achieved a weight loss of
22.7% after 68 weeks so was supposed to
be 25% ended up being
22.7% big deal I mean it was a tiny mess
it wasn't anything too crazy but
40.4% of them they actually lost 25% so
they pretty much achieved their goal for
the most part so it was a slight mess it
wasn't a big deal and you know the
market overreacted and stock went down
and this is what happened guys whenever
your stock is priced to Perfection the
stock was trading at 40 times earnings
or something crazy it's no longer price
superfection it's trading at a much
better valuation and this is what
happens once you once you miss once you
did a slight p and something bad happens
something goes wrong your stock gets
destroyed we've seen it many times and
we're seeing it again and there
something else where there was a study
from Eli Lily which is another popular
weight loss company you could say or a
general uh you know company in general
and they have their zound kind of drug
and they did a study and it was Superior
to wgvi much Superior of weight loss of
20.2% versus wavi which is owned by NV
it was
13.7% so that's something you have to
keep in mind and that's another reason
why the stock went down but nvo still
has a massive market share in the glp1
space estimated to be around 65% market
share uh this is huge this is absolutely
massive and the OIC patent of nvo does
not expire before 2032 I believe in
China it expires in 2027 if I'm not
mistaken or in 2028 but the United
States and EU it does not expire before
2032 and there other patents they don't
expire before 2029 203 but OIC which is
the most popular one does not expire
between 20 31 to 2032 and this is very
important now the main risk with nvo and
Eli Lily and those kind of companies
especially nvo is there's a lot of
companies that're trying to get in on
the weight loss Market fiser is trying
to make their own drug I believe Bristol
Myers is trying to get in on it there's
a lot of different pharmaceutical
companies they're trying to get in on it
you have companies like him and her
health which I own other kind of tele
Health companies they're selling the the
other version the compounded product
they're selling it for cheap instead of
$2,000 a month they're selling it for
$165 a month and that's competing as an
alternative to the weight loss things
that nvo is selling and you have a lot
of different companies over 60 new drugs
are expected to enter the market by 2029
so competition is coming now nvl does
have 16% market share but they're not
going to have a 16% market share forever
and that's just a fact and it's not
going to be here forever but in my
opinion and based on a lot of the things
that I read on a lot of those companies
fizer and other kind of companies this
is not going to happen anytime soon like
it's not going to happen before 2031
like 2020 it could launch by 2029 F is
not going to have their drug ready
before like 2029 nv's patent is not
going to expire before 2031 so the way I
look at stocks I look over the next four
to five years so my valuation model on
nvo is going to be based on 2028 to 2029
so this is what I look for anything
beyond that I don't really look at it so
if I'm right on nvl you could get in and
get out way before this whole drama
thing happens but yeah 16 new drugs it's
not going to be here between between
before 2030 to 2031 but nvo isn't dumb
they have an amazing management team and
are doing something about it and I'm
very surprised that they got the
approval to acquire another company
called catalent they got the green light
and it's over a65 billion dollar
acquisition I was surprised Eli Lily is
surprised L companies are scared but
they were able to go through with the
acquisition I believe it's going to
close very soon and analysts are
expecting this acquisition to generate
up to $100 billion doll in annual sales
in the future so nvo isn't really dumb
and they're doing something about it for
the long term and very smart management
team very good company very High net
income margins around 35 36% net income
margins this is like a tech company
Microsoft has 35% you know very high net
income
margins looking over the long term uh
it's a little bit challenging but I'm
going to look at the p ratio for now now
the PA Ratio or I should say the forward
PA ratio as I told you guys it was price
to Perfection trading Fe was 50 times
earnings 4p was 40 times earnings before
it happened now it's trading around 22
times earnings 23 times forward earnings
I should say 23 times forward earnings
isn't too bad like it's on a historical
basis at least it's not too cheap but
it's not too expensive either so it's
much better fairly valued right now than
it was uh just a few weeks ago it's
crazy how fast it happens so it's it
looks much much better right now but
looking over the long term it's a little
bit hard to Value but this is what I did
I took the 2025 analyist numbers and
then I uh put it in for next year for
2025 and there's over 20 analyst that
expecting that over 22% EPS gross so I
believe it's likely going to be accurate
this is
$388 in EPS so I use that and over the
next 3 years after that the analysts are
expecting from 22% grow all the way down
to 11 to 12% kind of growth I believe
this is fair so this is what I put in I
put in the next year's number of 22%
which is $388 then I put in 133% earning
spare gross for the 4 years after 2025
to get a 5year estimate and I believe
this is fair so it goes from 22% grow
next year to in 2026 it goes to 13% and
it stays around 13% for 4 years after
that I think you know this is fair until
we get into 2029 and then we see what
happens with other competition and we
get $6 and 33 cents of earnings per
share by 2029 now the current PA ratio
23 * earnings the mean was uh 25 times
earnings and trade as low as 13 as high
as 42 times now this what I'm going to
do I'm going to take the six is it was
it
$633 so I'm going to take the
$6 and. 33 cents per share and I'm going
to time it by the current multiple of 23
times earnings now the current multiple
of 23 times earnings I have to admit
it's not cheap it's not expensive but
relative to the net income margins and
relative to certain 15% kind of longer
term earnings for share grow maybe with
their new acquisition and other things I
don't believe this is too expensive at
all but it's not cheap either so I'm
just using it as a fair multiple so
using it at 23 times earnings and this
is I would say it's somewhat kind of a
best case scenario by using it at 23
times earnings we get
$145 per share the current price of uh
nvo is $86 per share so if I'm buying
nvo today at $86 per share my upside
from here over the next 5 years is only
69% 69% over the next 5 years I don't
know about you guys but that doesn't
excite me too much now I have to admit
it could trade at 25 times earnings they
could trade at 30 times maybe the grow
is higher than 133% in 2026 but this is
not something I want to bet on with a
very uncertain market and with a lot of
changes in policies that could happen
with the new Administration that could
maybe is trying to lower drug prices and
other things going into 2025 so I
wouldn't want to bet on it for me
personally I would not be willing to pay
if it's if my fair value is
145 or my my price target for 2029 I
would not be willing to pay more than
half of that so half of that would be
around $72 so for me personally $72 per
share on nvo would be an amazing buying
opportunity as a small position and
dollar cost average de down now again
I'm not saying it's going there normally
those stocks Quality Companies they very
rarely get to fair value but for me I'm
seeing better opportunities in the
market so if nvo gets to $72 then it
would be a generational buying
opportunity but over here nvo could go
up because it was a massive overreaction
in the short term it's down 40% it could
go up it's not too bad not the best in
the market in my opinion there's better
opportunities but for me $72 this is
when I would be interested so this was
just my opinion on nvo not Financial
advice I hope you enjoyed it if you did
please press the like button and maybe
consider subscribing so I'll talk to you in another video. -
Med tak til c3po er hermed en dansk udgave af AI-genereret transcript til dem, der foretrækker at læse:
Jeg kiggede på aktiehandel til 52
uger lavt ind i 2025, og jeg var meget
overrasket over at finde nvo nvo var en fantastisk
virksomhed det er stadig en fantastisk virksomhed
det er et fald på 20 % i forhold til måneden, et fald på 40 % over
de sidste 6 måneder er det stadig overstået
200 % i løbet af de sidste 5 år, men det var jeg
bare chokeret over at finde nvo ned 40% over
de sidste 6 måneder handlet til 52 uger
lavt overraskede det mig, og det gjorde mig meget
nysgerrig efter at gøre mere research forsøge at finde
ud af hvorfor nvo går så meget ned, hvis nvo
præsenterer en form for en
generations købsmulighed som jeg
gerne sige eller er det en slags fælde
og måske går det meget langsommere
måske er det stadig overv værdsat, så det var jeg
meget nysgerrig efter at finde ud af, at jeg lavede nogle
forskning, jeg vil dele det med dig
gutter her i videoen, jeg håber i nyder
det håber jeg du får noget værdi, hvis du gør det
tryk venligst på like-knappen og lad mig
ved hvad du synes i kommentarerne nu
Jeg skal minde dig om, at jeg ikke er en
farmaceutisk ekspert til enhver ekspert i
denne branche prøver jeg at holde mig til tingene
at jeg forstår den eneste analyse I
gjorde var på fizer og det har den heller ikke gjort
godt det har været fladt at gå ned som
tre eller 4% udbyttet er stadig godt
stadig solidt selskab, men det er kun en
farmaceutiske lager jeg har lavet, og jeg prøver
at holde sig væk fra dem, og det er det sådan
Jeg vil give dig en sober analyse
af den forskning, jeg har lavet på nvo og jeg
håber du nyder det, men fra min
forstå hovedårsagen til, at nvo
faldet 20 % i løbet af de sidste måneder
og i løbet af den sidste uge eller to er fordi
af det seneste stof Kria tror jeg på dette
er hvordan du udtaler det er deres næste
Generation fedme lægemiddel kandidat efter
Wei wovi er deres seneste med
glp1-injektioner og sådan noget tilsyneladende
de har en ny, der kommer ud
deres næste generations lægemiddel og nvo har
forventede vægttabet at generere af
omkring 25 %, så de forventede en vægt på 25 %
tabsrate, men det skete ikke patienter
samlet opnået et vægttab på
22,7% efter 68 uger så skulle
være 25% endte med at blive
22,7% big deal Jeg mener, det var et lille rod
det var ikke noget for tosset men
40,4% af dem tabte de faktisk 25% så
de nåede stort set deres mål for
det meste, så det var lidt rod
var ikke en big deal, og du ved det
markedet overreagerede, og aktien faldt
og dette er hvad der skete gutter når som helst
din aktie er prissat til Perfection the
aktien handlede til 40 gange indtjeningen
eller noget skørt, det er ikke længere prisen
superfektion det handler til meget
bedre værdiansættelse og det er hvad
sker når du en gang du savner en gang du
gjorde et lille p og der sker noget slemt
noget går galt din aktie får
ødelagt vi har set det mange gange og
vi ser det igen og igen
noget andet, hvor der var en undersøgelse
fra Eli Lily, som er en anden populær
vægttab selskab kan man sige eller en
generelt uh du kender virksomheden generelt
og de har deres zound slags stof
og de lavede en undersøgelse, og det var Superior
at wgvi meget Overlegen af vægttab af
20,2% mod wavi som er ejet af NV
det var
13,7% så det er noget man skal
husk, og det er en anden grund
hvorfor aktien gik ned, men nvo stadig
har en massiv markedsandel i glp1
plads anslået til at være omkring 65% af markedet
del øh det er enormt det er absolut
massiv og OIC patentet af nvo gør
ikke udløbe før 2032 tror jeg på
Kina, det udløber i 2027, hvis jeg ikke er det
fejl eller i 2028, men USA
stater og EU udløber det ikke før
2032 og der andre patenter gør de ikke
udløber inden 2029 203 men OIC som er
den mest populære udløber ikke
mellem 20 31 til 2032, og det er meget
vigtigt nu den største risiko med nvo og
Eli Lily og den slags virksomheder
især nvo er der mange af
virksomheder, der forsøger at komme ind på
vægttabet Market fiser forsøger
at lave deres eget stof, tror jeg Bristol
Myers prøver at komme ind på det der
en masse forskellige lægemidler
virksomheder, de forsøger at komme ind på
du har virksomheder som ham og hende
sundhed som jeg ejer anden form for tele
Sundhedsfirmaer, de sælger
anden version det sammensatte produkt
de sælger det billigt i stedet for
2.000 dollars om måneden, de sælger det for
$165 om måneden, og det er at konkurrere som en
alternativ til vægttab ting
at nvo sælger og du har en masse
af forskellige virksomheder over 60 nye lægemidler
forventes at komme på markedet i 2029
så konkurrencen kommer nu nvl gør
har 16% markedsandel, men det er de ikke
vil have en markedsandel på 16 % for evigt
og det er bare et faktum, og det er det ikke
vil være her for evigt, men i min
mening og baseret på mange af tingene
som jeg læste om mange af de virksomheder
fizer og andre slags virksomheder dette
kommer ikke til at ske lige så snart
det kommer ikke til at ske før 2031
ligesom 2020 kan den lanceres i 2029 F er
ikke vil have deres medicin klar
før ligesom 2029 nv's patent er ikke
udløber inden 2031, så som jeg
se på aktier jeg kigger over de næste fire
til fem år
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