Sammenligning af banker i USA

[tommycarstensen]

Forrige weekend skrev jeg et indlaeg om Silicon Valley Bank her i traad 111542:
https://proinvestor.com/boards/111542/

Jeg havde paa det tidspunkt ikke lavet en figur, der sammmenligner bankerne mht forhold mellem kontanter og urealiserede tab paa obligationer; held-to-maturity (HTM) securities. Det har jeg nu. Jeg har vedhaeftet fem figurer, og den graa er den interessante, hvor SVB stikker ud.

Blaa: Vaerdien af HTM securities uden at korrigere for kursudsving.
Roed: Vaerdien af HTM securities efter korrektion for kursudsving.
Gul: Ikke-realiseret netto-tab paa HTM securities.
Groen: Kontanter og andre likvide midler.
Graa: Forholdet mellem gul (tab) og groen (kontanter). Hvis det ikke-realiserede tab overstiger kontantbeholdningen, saa er man i princippet midlertidigt insolvent, ligesom det skete for SVB.

Hvis de underliggende obligationer loeber mindre end et aar yderligere, saa er det selvfoelgelig mindre problematisk, men alle bankerne jeg kiggede paa havde primaert obligationer med en loebetid paa mere end ti aar. Og en obligation med lang loebetid er selvfoelgelig ogsaa mere kursfoelsom og bidrager ad den vej ogsaa mere til det samlede urealiserede tab.

Jeg har ogsaa vedhaeftet en figur, der viser afkastgraden for diverse US-banker de seneste 30--40 aar.

Hvis man kun kigger paa de to vaerdier, saa er $FITB paa papiret den maaske bedste bank blandt de udvalgte. Det er ikke en koebsanbefaling. Goer dit eget hjemmearbejde.

P.S. $BAC udgjorde ved udgangen af 2022 en smule mere end 11% af vaerdipapir-portefoeljen hos Berkshire Hathaway. Den var i kuurs $34 foer SVB-krakket og lukkede i fredags i $28-29 efter nogle dage forinden at have vaeret nede i $26-27. Jeg vil enormt gerne vide, hvorfor de har solgt de fleste af deres aktier i $USB i 2022, og jeg haaber Buffett bliver stillet spoergsmaalet i et interview eller ved generalforsamlingen.

[tommycarstensen]

Vedhaeftet lige et par relevante figurer for $FITB ift HTM-securities og kontantbeholdning.

[tommycarstensen]

Jeg var ikke saerlig tilfreds med en af figurerne. Her er en lidt bedre figur, der viser 5 aars glidende gennemsnit for afkastgrad.

[tommycarstensen]

JPMorgan Chase acquires substantial majority of assets and assumes certain liabilities of First Republic Bank Conference Call May 01, 2023
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/events

Nedenfor de vigtigste citater fra Jamie Dimon fra telekonferencen 1. maj efter min mening.

Well, no crystal ball is perfect. But, yes, I think the banking system is very stable. You guys have reported already on tons of regional banks who actually had good results, very modest outflow. A lot of the deposit outflow was because of quantitative tightening, it wasn't because people are having runs.

There are only so many banks offsides this way and I think this is - there may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all. But this part of the crisis is over. That does not - down the road, there are rates going way up, real estate, recession - that's a whole different issue, but for now, everyone should just take a deep breath.

I was reading all the regional bank reports from you and some of the analysts out there. They're all mostly - some of the banks are down 2% or 3% - a lot had to do with QT. They were not having runs. The runs were really limited to the people who had too big uninsured deposits and money that can move very quickly and stuff like that. So, yeah, I think that's over. And obviously, there's always future issues, but I think that's mostly over.

[tommycarstensen]

Warren Buffett on banking crisis fallout: We're not through with bank failures
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5q7a_lB1uU