Xbrane Biopharma: Fantastic News
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Xbrane Biopharma: Fantastic News
Filip Einarsson
2022-02-08
07:15
Redeye leaves its first impression on the announcement of Biogen as commercial and development partner for Xcimzane. The share will likely trade up significantly on yesterday's news in the morning.
Yesterday evening, Xbrane announced that it has entered into a global commercialization and license agreement with Biogen to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Xcimzane. US-based Biogen likely requires no introduction for the seasoned life science investor. However, the company is one of the world's first global biotechnology companies, it has ~10000 employees and reported revenues of USD ~11bn in 2021, of which USD 831m was from biosimilars. In this context, we find it particularly interesting that at the end of January, Biogen sold its 50% stake in Samsung Bioepis, producer of SB11, one of the two main competing Lucentis biosimilars. Possibly, could Biogen be looking for a new long-term partner to advance its biosimilar portfolio?The disclosed terms of the agreement are listed below:
Upfront USD 8m
Development and commercial milestones USD 80m
Biogen responsible for all development costs for Xcimzane once Xbrane has completed pre-clinical development
Tiered royalties
To provide some context, the Xlucane deal is listed below:Upfront EUR 7.5m
50/50 cost/revenue share
In our view, the terms of the deal are highly encouraging and clearly materialize Xcimzane as a commercially highly attractive asset. We want to highlight that Xbrane has attracted some impressive names as partners for its two leading assets. The structure of the Xcimzane deal differs notably, and in our view, is a great fit for Xbrane based on the current prospects. With the proceeds from the upfront payment, we see the risk of a capital injection announcement as negligible; Xbrane should now be financed until self-sustained from Xlucane sales. To be noted, we would be surprised if the royalties did not fall short of the 50% from the Xlucane deal due to the different deal structure in the Xcimzane case. To conclude, this looks very attractive for Xbrane.At yesterday's closing price of SEK 91.8, we argue Xbrane to be substantially undervalued. This deal significantly offsets the financial risk and further confirms acknowledgment of Xbrane's technology, management, and pipeline. We are happy to reiterate that we picked Xbrane as one of Redeye's analysts' 2022 Life Science Picks in Redeye's Life Science Outlook presented in January.
We expect a significant positive reaction in the stock once trading starts. At the same time, it's hard to foresee the magnitude of the move in the current market climate; however, we would not be surprised, and we would also consider it justified for the share to trade north of SEK 120 based on this today. As we previously stated, our valuation of Xbrane is based solely on Xlucane. But following this great news, we see a clear rationale also to assess Xcimzane. We will return with a more thorough take shortly.
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Kan godt lide denne del af aftalen: The disclosed terms of the agreement are listed below:
Upfront USD 8m
Development and commercial milestones USD 80m
Biogen responsible for all development costs for Xcimzane once Xbrane has completed pre-clinical development
Tiered royalties
To provide some context, the Xlucane deal is listed below:Upfront EUR 7.5m
50/50 cost/revenue share -
Webcast kl 10... https://tv.streamfabriken.com/xbrane-biopharma-press-conference-2022
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Xbrane går en særdeles spændende fremtid i møde.
Kursen p.t. ca. 92.00. Forventer, at vi i løbet af året potentielt, kan passere det kursniveau i omegnen af 173.00, hvor f.eks. CEO'en senest købte insider aktier.
Her giver Xbrane's CEO en kort status om forventningerne til den fremtidige indtjening etc.:
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Enig, casen er blevet endnu stærkere med denne aftale....så mangler vi bare lidt generel medvind til biotek, som er blevet slagtet det sidste års tid
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Den skal altså op over 120 idag i første omgang....det er en fantastisk aftale...lad os se når der har været webcast kl 10
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Svært marked p.t....i et "normalt" marked ville denne fantastiske aftale sikkert have givet en 20-30% stigning. Lige nu kæmper aktien for bare at holde en 10-15% stigning. Lidt surt at være investor lige nu
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Pareto Securities har et foreløbigt et "himmelråbende" kursmål på 245,00 på Xbrane fra august -21. Men med de særdeles positive udsigter for 2022 kan det være, at vi kommer tæt på målet i løbet af 2022-23.
Jeg holder foreløbigt et 2-3 årigt "fast greb" om Xbrane, da jeg har stor tillid til selskabet, ledelsen, pipelinen - og de fremtidige markeds- og indtjeningsmuligheder etc.
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Enig Urban....så må vi finde os i de amerikanere der sønderbomber alt biotek i Norden. Desværre
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Following Monday's announcement of the Xcimzane licensing deal with Biogen, Redeye is convinced that Xbrane shares are currently trading at a substantial discount and, therefore, indicatively raises its fair value.
We said we would return shortly in yesterday's note, as we intended to make an initial assessment of the deal and prospects of Xcimzane. We have given it some more consideration and have prepared beforehand by looking into the commercial opportunities of Xcimzane and biosimilar deal terms.Thus, we believe we have a good understanding of Xcimzane's prospects. However, as we have mentioned before, we have previously chosen not to include Xcimzane into our valuation of Xbrane. We took this decision as we felt it was the most realistic assumption to fairly reflect the company's current value. We acknowledged that including Xcimzane into our valuation likely would substantially impact our fair value range. We did not feel comfortable doing so before financing for at least the phase l study, and a commercial partner was in place.
With the Biogen partnership established, we indicatively raise our fair value to the SEK 250-270 (167) range, based on our current assessment. We will return with a new definitive fair value range in a more in-depth research update that will contain our review in connection with the year-end report.
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Fair value på XBrane hævet fra 167 til 250-270 på Xcimzane aftalen....utroligt den falder idag, men det er bare sådan markedet er p.t. Lad os håbe investorerne snart indser hvor god denne aftale med Biogen er.
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Der var jeg vist lidt for hurtig....nu stiger den endelig igen, som den burde.
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Link fundet, men læsning kræver abonnement. Ok. Tak for info;-)
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Urban...Du kan bare lave et login på Red Eye...koster ikke noget
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Godt nok opslidende at se på Morgan Stanley og Bank of America, der hælder aktier ud i biotek hver eneste dag. Bliver de aldrig færdige?
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Ja, utroligt kursen stadig ligger og roder omkring 100, men det er jo sådan markeds vilkårene er p.t...det må vi jo acceptere og vente på bedre tider. XBrane leverer ihvertfald varen.
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