Olieprisen dropper? Betyder det noget for aktionærerne?
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Vi er ikke engang nede ved okt. 2019 niveauet. Faldet er indtil nu ca. 16% fra toppen og ca. 7% fra niveauet 1. jan.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/OMXCOP-OMXC25/ -
"Every investor is told to buy low and sell high. But most don't realize that buy low typically works out to buy low, then buy lower, then buy even lower, and once you really hate yourself, buy lower than you thought was possible.
This is the low part of buy low. We're in it. I don't know how many legs lower we have to go (if any). No one does.
The (potentially) good news is the lower we go the higher the expected returns should be." - Ben Carlson
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CashFlowGuy Hehe, godt citat
Det ser ikke ud til, at dagens fald sniger sig ind i alletiders top 20, der ud over 1987 taeller flere datoer fra 1929-1933 og 2008:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#Largest_percentage_changesShiller-P/E er stadig rekord-hoej. Vi kan sagtens falde yderligere trods den nu rekord-lave rente.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe10Y yield var kortvarigt nede under en halv procent tidligere i dag. Interessant at foelge rente-kurven.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield -
Er vi så heldige at nedturen i SP500 snart stopper med "kun" en korrektion (ABC)?
Graf https://ibb.co/7YtRJhs -
Næppe. Vi kan godt gå yderligere 30% fra dagens kurs, hvis vi er uheldige. Jeg har meget svært ved at se noget som kan ændre ved markedernes narrativ. Epidemien kører sin egen matematisk eksponentielle gang - intet at gøre der. Og det vil være historien indtil epidemien topper om nogle måneder. Næppe befordrende for aktiekøb.
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En strø tanke: Oliefaldet sætte USA's shale under væsentlig pres. Hvis ikke producenterne skal gå fallit, så kan Trump:
- Give statsstøtte/lånegarantier til produktionen.
- Angribe Iran, som hævn på de 2 døde soldater i gårdsdagens raket angreb i Irak. Det skal nok få olien op igen, og tage opmærksomheden væk fra Corona epidemien....
Aktiekursen vil dog få flere tæsk....
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