Er vi smartere en Warren Buffet?
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Jeg har lige lagt en ny video op på den engelske YT-kanal, hvor jeg kort fortalt undersøger, om vi er smartere end Warren Buffett
Og nej, det er vi jo ikke. Men vi har nogen muligheder som små investorer for ikke at begå samme fejl som ham eller for at komme ud hurtigt, når vi har lavet en fejl.Her kigger jeg på Buffets investering i Kraft Heinz, der har kostet ham en god slat milliarder.
Dette er ikke en dybdegående analyse af firmaet men mere en gennemgang af, hvorfor jeg ikke ville været gået ind, samt hvor jeg evt. ville være gået ud, hvis først jeg havde fået forkøbt mig.Dette er ikke et forsøg på at være "Karl smart" på Buffets bekostning, men i stedet et forsøg på at backteste min strategi og se, om den kunne have holdt mig ude af en tabsgivende investering.
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Buffett er bel stadig en af verdens rigest menesker - så der er plads til fejl
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Helt enig. Og som jeg siger i videoen, så har han jo hundredevis af virksomheder i porteføljen. Så man skal passe på med bare at hoppe med på én investering, fordi Buffett er med. For han har også tabsgivende investeringer engang imellem. Så hvis man vil kopiere ham, så skal man kopiere det hele. Ellers risikerer man at stå med en KraftHeinz med et massivt tab.
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3G havde nogenlunde samme antal aktier som Berkshire, inden de solgte i september. Det er ikke Berkshires stoerste position. Den udgoer kun 4-5% af deres portefoelje. Bemaerk foelgende fra Berkshires aarsrapport fra 2018:
"Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding - 325,442,152 shares - because Berkshire is part of a control group and therefore must
account for this investment on the "equity" method. On its balance sheet, Berkshire carries its Kraft Heinz holding at a GAAP figure of $13.8 billion, an amount reduced by our share of the large write-off of intangible assets taken by Kraft Heinz in 2018. At yearend, our Kraft Heinz holding had a market value of $14 billion and a cost basis of $9.8 billion."Der kommer regnskab 14. februar. En af mine koebsordrer blev udloest i dag. Jeg saa gerne, at de saenkede udbyttet og begyndte at afdrage gaelden maerkbart.
2020-02-05
Credit Suisse warns of Kraft dividend cut
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3538761-credit-suisse-warns-of-kraft-dividend-cut
"We expect a step-down in EBITDA in 2020 of $200M just from divestitures and incentive compensation alone. If so, we do not see how the company can achieve the rating agencies' targets unless it cuts its dividend. We think that management would announce this decision on its 4Q earnings call rather than wait until the release of its Enterprise Strategy in early 2020," reasons analyst Robert Moskow.2020-01-23
Bernstein a sideline watcher of Kraft Heinz
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3533907-bernstein-sideline-watcher-of-kraft-heinz- Bernstein says Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is "not investable" until after the food giant's investor day event sometime in the early part of this year.
- Analyst Alexia Howard wants to see the company's strategic direction before taking off the Market Perform rating.
Alexia Howard
Fantastic. And given the comments on the uses of cash and the leverage and the investment-grade rating that you made at the end of the prepared remarks, should we assume that, at least for the time being, there are no plans to cut the dividend? Or is that something that we'll have to wait for the Investor Day early in 2020 to get confirmed?
Paulo Basilio
So Alexa, first of all, I think investment-grade status for us is -- continues to be very important. We've just declared the dividend, as you saw. And again, we are in a very solid position in terms of liquidity after the recent refi we did and also in the cash flow generation that would allow us to reduce our leverage over time. But now we are going to a very deep strategic review of the business, understanding how we're going to see the future performance of the company. And in this analysis, in this review, a capital structure is going to be a very important chapter. So we expect to come back to the market with our full view and full picture of how we're expecting the company's performance, the company's strategy for the future, including capital structure at the beginning of next year.
Steven Strycula
Miguel, I have a quick follow-up to Alexia's question, and I appreciate you haven't fully ironed out the Board plan at this point in time. But can you help investors at least think through the obvious and, more importantly, the less obvious implications of the dividend policy as you think forward? That would be helpful. And then I have a quick follow-up.
Miguel Patricio
Can you help me giving you exactly what you have in mind, Steve? I want to address your question in the right way.
Steven Strycula
Sure. Yes. So when I have conversations with investors, we receive the puts and takes of whether the company has excess capital to really pay out at the levels that they do today. And how do you think about some of the considerations of, if you have fewer brands in the portfolio moving forward, or the priority is to paying down debt? So to sum up, the question would really be, what are the very obvious considerations of keeping it versus not keeping it? And then what would be some of the unintended consequences that maybe most investors might not see from our vantage point?
Paulo Basilio
This is Paulo. Let me try to address how we're thinking about that. So in the cash flow information, and I know that we're going to see these later in our Q. In -- for example, in Q3, we generated a free cash flow to equity after CapEx of $860 million. So sufficient to pay the dividend at roughly below $500 million. But the important thing here is that now, what we are doing that, as Miguel mentioned, we are discussing the future of the company, the strategy of the company, how we're going to, where are we going to invest to grow the business for the next 3 to 5 years. And developing this plan, for sure, as you can imagine, like capital structure is a key chapter of this as I said. And for us, being an investment-grade company is -- remains very, very important. So our time line here is that we are going to develop our strategic plan, we are going to set our future expectations for our performance, addressing our portfolio, our categories, our brands, our regions and also our capital structure to support that and share with the market early next year.
Miguel Patricio
Steven, just repeating what Paulo said. I think that when we define our strategy, we'll define what are the areas that we think that we can have substantial growth. What are the areas that we don't think we can have substantial growth but can generate very good cash to support the growth? And what are the areas that our products or categories that actually could have a better fit with somebody else. And I think that with this in mind, we can identify categories that we can have divested in the future.
2019-05-06
Warren Buffett on Kraft Heinz restating earnings
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6wOovL0TLE2019-02-25
Warren Buffett on what he plans to do with his Kraft Heinz shares and 3G Capital
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEP7RUKuI0U
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Jeg glemte et par relevante figurer og tabeller...
10Q for Q3:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745919000113/form10-qq32019.htmDebt Issuances:
In September 2019, KHFC issued $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 3.750% senior notes due April 2030, $500 million aggregate principal amount of 4.625% senior notes due October 2039, and $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 4.875% senior notes due October 2049 (collectively, the "2019 Notes"). The 2019 Notes are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Kraft Heinz as to payment of principal, premium, and interest on a senior unsecured basis. We used the proceeds from the 2019 Notes to fund the Second Tender Offer and to pay fees and expenses in connection therewith and to fund the partial redemption of $500 million aggregate principal amount of our 2.800% senior notes due July 2020, described above. A tabular summary of the 2019 Notes is included below.Aggregate Principal Amount (in millions)
3.750% senior notes due April 2030 $ 1,0004.625% senior notes due October 2039 $ 500
4.875% senior notes due October 2049 $ 1,500
Total senior notes issued $ 3,000
10K 2018:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745919000049/form10-k2018.htmLong-Term Debt:
The following table summarizes our long-term debt obligations. Long-term debt at December 30, 2017 reflects the restatements described in Note 2, Restatement of Previously Issued Consolidated Financial Statements.Priority (a)
Maturity Dates
Interest Rates (b)
Carrying Values
As Restated
December 29, 2018
December 30, 2017
(in millions)
U.S. dollar notes:2025 Notes(c)
Senior Secured Notes
February 15, 2025
4.875%
$
1,193$
1,192Other U.S. dollar notes(d)(e)
Senior Notes
2019-2046
2.800% - 7.125%
25,551
25,165
Euro notes(d)
Senior Notes
2023-2028
1.500% - 2.250%
2,899
3,038
Canadian dollar notes(f)
Senior Notes
July 6, 2020
2.700% - 3.128%
586
794
British pound sterling notes:
2030 Notes(g)
Senior Secured Notes
February 18, 2030
6.250%
165
176
Other British pound sterling notes(d)
Senior Notes
July 1, 2027
4.125%
504
536
Other long-term debt
Various
2019-2035
0.800% - 5.500%
50
56
Capital lease obligations
199
84
Total long-term debt
31,147
31,041
Current portion of long-term debt
377
2,733
Long-term debt, excluding current portion
$
30,770$
28,308(a)
Priority of debt indicates the order which debt would be paid if all debt obligations were due on the same day. Senior secured debt takes priority over unsecured debt. Senior debt has greater seniority than subordinated debt.
(b)
Floating interest rates are stated as of December 29, 2018.
(c)
The 4.875% Second Lien Senior Secured Notes due February 15, 2025 (the "2025 Notes") are senior in right of payment of existing and future unsecured and subordinated indebtedness. Kraft Heinz fully and unconditionally guarantees these notes.
(d)
Kraft Heinz fully and unconditionally guarantees these notes, which were issued by KHFC.
(e)
Includes current year issuances (the "New Notes") described below.
(f)
Kraft Heinz fully and unconditionally guarantees these notes, which were issued by Kraft Heinz Canada ULC (formerly Kraft Canada Inc.).
(g)
The 6.250% Pound Sterling Senior Secured Notes due February 18, 2030 (the "2030 Notes") were issued by H.J. Heinz Finance UK Plc. Kraft Heinz and KHFC fully and unconditionally guarantee the 2030 Notes. This guarantee is secured and senior in right of payment of existing and future unsecured and subordinated indebtedness. Kraft Heinz became guarantor of the 2030 Notes in connection with the 2015 Merger. The 2030 Notes were previously only guaranteed by KHFC.
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Jeg søgte efter Buffett/Berkshire og Kraft Heinz på YouTube, og din video var blandt top ti
Ikke dårligt, fordi der er faktisk mange videoer.
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