Ugens aktie - Abbvie

[Markettimer]

Hej alle,
Jeg har lige lavet en relativt omfattende video på engelsk om "stock of the week" som i denne uge blev Abbvie fra USA.

Skulle I have forslag til næste "Stock of the week" fra US-markedet, så skriv det som en kommentar under videoen direkte i Youtube

[tommycarstensen]

Markettimer Tak for videoen! Den er god og omfattende! Jeg kan godt lide AbbVie, fordi de har en bred pipeline, og jeg synes, at de fik Allergan og Botox til en rigtig fornuftig pris. Hvad jeg ikke kan lide ved AbbVie er (som du selv naevner), at Humira udgoer mere end halvdelen af omsaetningen; se vedhaeftede. Salget af Humira i USA alene udgoer knap halvdelen af omsaetningen; se vedhaeftede. Derudover er AbbVie ikke laengere historisk billig; se vedhaeftede.

FASTgraphs 2019jun25:
$ABBV AbbVie Has It All: Growth, Dividend Growth and Compelling Valuation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7EFJOO0f-4

Pipelines:
https://www.abbvie.com/our-science/pipeline.html
https://www.allergan.com/research-and-development/pipeline

Risk factors fra deres seneste 10K:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1551152/000155115219000008/abbv-20181231x10k.htm
Any significant event that adversely affects HUMIRA revenues could have a material and negative impact on AbbVie's results of operations and cash flows.
HUMIRA accounted for approximately 61% of AbbVie's total net revenues in 2018. Any significant event that adversely affects HUMIRA's revenues could have a material adverse impact on AbbVie's results of operations and cash flows. These events could include loss of patent protection for HUMIRA, the commercialization of biosimilars of HUMIRA, the discovery of previously unknown side effects or impaired efficacy, increased competition from the introduction of new, more effective or less expensive treatments and discontinuation or removal from the market of HUMIRA for any reason.

Interest coverage:
https://www.midgardfinance.com/plot/fundamentals/_/pharma_us/interestCoverage/pharma_us_interestCoverage_sumFalse_2019-12.png

Payout ratio (ift indtjening og ikke ift frie pengestroemme):
https://www.midgardfinance.com/plot/fundamentals/_/pharma_us/payoutRatio/pharma_us_payoutRatio_sumFalse_2019-12.png

[Markettimer]

Hej,
Fedt med de ekstra grafer.
Jeg er dog lidt i tvivl om, hvorfor du siger, den ikke er billigt prissat og så linker til en video fra Fastgraphs, der siger, at den ER billig.
Jeg bruger jo netop selv Fastgraphs i videoen, og her viser grafen stadig, at i forhold til f.eks. udviklingen i earnings, så ligger den stadig fint til den billige side.

Men måske misforstod jeg dit skriv.

[tommycarstensen]

Markettimer Ahhhhh ja, jeg skulle nok have uddybet. FastGraphs-videoen er fra 25. juni, hvor kursen blev banket ned til 65 dollar. Nu handles den knap 40% dyrere til kurs $90. Jeg synes ikke, at den er dyr nu, men jeg synes bare heller ikke, at den er specielt billig. Jeg koebte den selv, da den laa og rodede rundt under $70.

Jeg hoerte i en YouTube-video Charlie Munger referere til bogen "The Art of Being Unreasonable: Lessons in Unconventional Thinking":
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13482753-the-art-of-being-unreasonable
Jeg er virkelig urimelig i de krav, som jeg stiller til mine investeringer. AbbVie opfylder dem ikke helt laengere. Men jeg synes stadig, at den her og nu er en ganske fornuftig investering. Jeg ser ikke udbyttet som truet, og hvem vil ikke gerne have mere end 5% i udbytte om aaret, mens man ser pipeline og kliniske studier forhaabentligt udfolde sig positivt?

Jeg har vedhaeftet er screenshot fra Morningstar med deres price-to-fair-value-tidsserie. De mener stadig, at den er undervurderet. Her lidt af deres skriv.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/abbv/quote

We are slightly lowering our AbbVie fair value estimate to $101 from $102 based on an industry review of potential litigation costs, which we now factor into our discounted cash flow model for a longer duration. On the Allergan acquisition, while it carries a significant premium to the stock price, we viewed the company as undervalued. We believe management was opportunistically taking advantage of Allergan's low price combined with the need to reduce AbbVie's dependence on Humira. We model major annual Humira declines beginning in 2019 outside the U.S. and in 2023 in the U.S., following key patent settlements. A key valuation driver to offset eventual likely Humira sales declines is the company's next-generation immunology drugs targeting the IL23 and JAK pathways as these new pathways seem to offer better efficacy and an improved side effect profile over Humira. Further helping offset likely eventual Humira sales erosion, cancer drug Imbruvica holds strong blockbuster potential in leukemia. Also, the company has several other late-stage cancer drugs that should further help mitigate the eventual Humira sales declines. Allergan cash flows should also help mitigate the Humira pressures. On the bottom line, over the next three years we expect improving margins, largely driven by the higher contribution to total sales by specialty drugs, which carry very high margins. Also, AbbVie's partnership royalties on Humira began to expire in 2017, helping improve gross margins. For the weighted average cost of capital, we use a 7.5% cost of equity and market rates for the cost of debt.

I oevrigt forestiller jeg mig, at deres IL23-inhibitorer kommer til at konkurrere mod ditto Tremfya (Guselkumab) og Stelara (Ustekinumab) fra J&J. Farma staar aldrig stille. Det er super-spaendende at foelge, selv om jeg oftest staar paa sidelinien og kigger paa