Fortum - not powering through

[deleted-user]

En af mine helt faste bestanddele i porteføljen er Utillity selskabet Fortum. Iøvrigt er denne slags virksomheder på den lange bange ret velgørende for enhver formue, med deres stabile omsætning, indtjening og udbytte betaling. Men i Fortum har de sidste år bortset fra udbyttet på 1 Euro været skuffende rent indtjeningmæssigt og det har kursen også været tynget af.

Det er specielt 2 faktorer der har drevet indtjeningen ned. Problemer med A-kraftværket i Oscarshamn og så de lave nordiske energi priser, som følger af prispresset fra vandkraft.

De er idag kommet med Q3 og jeg vil hellere købe flere igen. Jeg kan være lidt betænkelig ved om vi kan få 1 Euro næste år, for overskuddet per Aktie er for de første 9 måneder kun 0,91 Euro.

Regnskabet:

FORTUM CORPORATION INTERIM REPORT 19 October 2012 at 9:00 EEST

July - September 2012

-- Comparable operating profit EUR 220 (297) million, -26%
-- Operating profit EUR 223 (314) million, of which EUR 3 (17) million
relates to items affecting comparability
-- Earnings per share EUR 0.14 (0.23), -39%, of which EUR 0.01 (0.02) per
share relates to items affecting comparability
-- Fortum has launched an efficiency programme to improve cash flow by more
than EUR 1 billion during 2013-2014
-- Capital expenditure guidance updated: In 2012 around EUR 1.5 (1.6-1.8)
billion, in 2013 EUR 1.1-1.4 billion and in 2014 EUR 0.9-1.1 (1.1-1.4)
billion

January - September 2012

-- Comparable operating profit EUR 1,152 (1,294) million, -11%
-- Operating profit EUR 1,242 (1,823) million, of which EUR 90 (529) million
relates to items affecting comparability; i.e. derivatives and the sale of
Fingrid in 2011
-- Earnings per share EUR 0.91 (1.52), -40%, of which EUR 0.11 (0.49) per
share relates to items affecting comparability; i.e. derivatives and the
sale of Fingrid in 2011
-- Nordic power prices clearly lower compared to 2011

-- Fortum currently expects the annual electricity demand growth in the Nordic
countries to be on average 0.5% in the coming years.
-- Power Division's Nordic generation hedges: For the rest of the calendar
year 2012, 70% hedged at EUR 48 per MWh, for 2013, 60% hedged at EUR 45 per
MWh, and for 2014 30% hedged at EUR 43 per MWh

Fortum's President and CEO Tapio Kuula, in connection with the third quarter of
2012:

"The business environment is extremely demanding and the hydrological situation
is putting additional pressure on Nordic prices, which are clearly lower than a
year ago. At the same time especially the prolonged outages in Oskarshamn
Sweden, has burdened the result significantly. Group comparable operating
profit totalled EUR 220 million in the third quarter and was weak as we
expected, but still unacceptable.

Fortum has therefore launched an efficiency programme in order to maintain and
strengthen its strategic flexibility and competitiveness and to enable the
company to continue to reach its financial targets. Targeted actions will
increase the efficiency of our core processes and lead to cost reductions.

The economic situation in Europe and globally - and the uncertainty regarding
its duration - has affected Fortum and its business operations. External
pressures and cost increases affecting the company are making it necessary for
us to further develop the efficiency of our operations. According to the
European utilities (Eurelectric Gallup poll), political and market risks are
currently the biggest risk factors in the power sector. In addition, discussion
and decision making around EU emissions trading and CO2 Emission allowances
have created uncertainty concerning the future carbon market. Also in the
Nordic countries, the political climate has become less supportive towards
CO2-free generation not dependent on subsidies, i.e. hydro and nuclear
generation. In economically uncertain times, political predictability and
consistency would be more valuable than ever.

In order to ensure the company's strategic flexibility and competitiveness, the
aim is to improve the company's cash flow more than EUR 1 billion during 2013 -
2014, by reducing capital expenditures, divesting non-core assets, reducing
fixed costs and through focus on working capital efficiency. Unfortunately, the
efficiency programme may have an effect on our personnel. If headcount
reductions are needed, they will be implemented on unit level by using natural
rotation, rearranging of vacant jobs and by retirement, whenever possible.

Fortum's purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future
generations, the aim is to build on our strong Nordic core business, create
solid earnings growth in Russia and build a platform for future growth."

Efficiency programme 2013-2014

Due to the increasingly demanding business environment, Fortum has started an
efficiency programme in order to maintain and strengthen strategic flexibility
and competitiveness, and to enable the company to reach its financial targets
in the future.

The aim is to improve the company's cash flow by more than approximately EUR 1
billion during 2013 - 2014 by reducing capital expenditures (capex) by EUR 250

• 350 million, divesting approximately EUR 500 million of non-core assets,
  reducing fixed costs and focusing on working capital efficiency.

Capex in 2013 will be EUR 1.1 - 1.4 billion and in 2014 EUR 0.9 - 1.1 billion.
In the end of 2014, the cost run rate will be approximately EUR 150 million
lower compared to 2012, including growth projects.

If headcount reductions are needed Fortum seeks to limit them, by using natural
rotation and retirement whenever possible. The assessments will therefore be
done at a unit level.

[Okonomen]

Synes også selv Fortum er en vanvittig interessant investeringsmulighed, men det undrer mig en smule at markedet tager så godt imod det regnskab. Det er måske fordi markedet godt ved det svier lidt i øjeblikket men fremtiden ser jo rimelig lys ud for selskabet. Venter på det rette tidspunkt til at gå ind i selskabet, og det er nok inden længe