OLIE OG GAS — December 2023
-
The main known risk in this scenario is what the oil market outlook for 2025 will look like at year-end. Will the 1 million bpd of demand growth in 2024 be enough to support a bullish outlook for 2025? It’s too early to tell, but it could be bearish if the market begins to expect inventory builds in 2025. In any case, it’ll be an important consideration for how E&P stocks perform throughout 2024.
-
If, on the other hand, demand outperforms, we’re looking at WTI trading at $90 per barrel or above and 100%-plus returns for many Canadian E&P stocks. This scenario could occur if the Fed cuts as many expect and if the U.S. and China avoid recessions. It would entail an increase in demand of more than 1.5 million bpd. I’ll assign a 20% probability to this scenario.
-
Capital Flow Considerations
Another important macro factor for the year-ahead outlook for E&Ps pertains to capital flows. How large fund managers react to events as they unfold and how they approach E&Ps is anyone’s guess. But what’s clear at the moment is that money managers are reluctant to allocate to energy.
-
Energy specialists have been all but eliminated from the field, leaving generalists to control the bulk of capital flows into E&P stocks. Generalists will want to see sustained higher prices. They’ll begin allocating to larger names. Only when they’re comfortable with those will they allocate to smaller names.
-
For this reason, we want to be positioned in companies that are big enough to benefit from the initial move into larger-cap names. This isn’t to say that small caps aren’t particularly attractive right now—perhaps even more so than large caps—but we’re only looking out a year, so capital flows will be more relevant to performance.
-
What will be interesting is the extent to which U.S. generalists recognize that U.S. shale growth is set to top out. At the moment, they’re back into the “shale is growing to the sky” camp, which is holding down both oil prices and E&P stocks.
-
We expect U.S. shale growth to top out in 2025 and plateau thereafter. If we’re right, investors should begin to get a whiff of this outcome in mid-to-late 2024. Assuming large generalist investors appreciate the ramifications of this development—namely, that global production growth will be harder to come by—they’re likely to seek out high-quality, long-lived assets in investor-friendly nations with at least a well-functioning legal system
-
Canada is the natural choice here. Canadian production features all these desirable attributes, plus pockets of production growth. A slight drawback for U.S. investors is the 15% withholding tax on dividends, but many Canadian E&Ps are choosing to repurchase shares instead of increasing dividends. Moreover, large U.S. shareholders will be more likely to push them in the share repurchase direction, as well.
-
Energy investors should position themselves in Canadian E&Ps, whether they’re buying for 2024 or longer, and whether they buy our favorites or something else.
-
Kilde: HFI Research
Dec 23 -
3 Brilliant Energy Stocks That Could Deliver High-Octane Returns in 2024 https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/1096066/3-brilliant-energy-stocks-that-could-deliver-high-octane-returns-in-2024
-
Crude Oil Falls on Technical Selling and Energy Demand Concerns https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/1096326/crude-oil-falls-on-technical-selling-and-energy-demand-concerns
-
Expect Volatility to Continue for Oil in 2024 https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/1096952/expect-volatility-to-continue-for-oil-in-2024
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Tilmeld Log ind