Shipping — Juli 2021
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With limited fleet growth until 2023E and an expected strong demand rebound from 2H21E, we maintain our BUY rating on the segment and see a 57% upside to our VLGC share index from current levels.
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Market: With an abundance of tonnage in AG and the uninspiring sentiment after the recent OPEC+ meeting, owners are hopeful that the upcoming acceptances could at least keep them afloat.
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The US/FE arbitrage is slightly supportive, but US inventory builds are needed to lower the six-year-high Mt Belvieu propane prices in order to support higher freight. With our forecast of rising US oil & gas production concurrent with increasing
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OPEC+ output from 2H21E and into 2022E, we see VLGC demand growth reaching 13% in 2022E, significantly outpacing VLGC supply growth at only 4%. With the orderbook vs fleet now at 24%, we expect a cyclical contraction from 2023E. However, we believe it is too early to price this in as we see spot rates potentially
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eaching $100k+ per day and asset prices +20% by end-2022E, generating significant cash flow and NAV upside over the next two years.
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nvestments: Shipping is cyclical, and investors tend to look at most 1.5 years ahead in time. With our VLGC share price expected to rise 57% over the next year in concert with rising earnings and asset prices, we maintain our BUY rating on the VLGC segment. Our top pick is Avance Gas, with a 53% upside to our N55 TP, closely followed by BW LPG (+47%) and Dorian LPG (+48%). Since we started covering VLGCs in 2014, we have 96% return on our recommendations vs the market at -36% & consensus at -33%
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Mærsk: USA-myndigheder lover fortsat pres på rederier https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/676944/maersk-usa-
myndigheder-lover-fortsat-pres-pa-rederier -
Proinvestor er igen foran: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/finans/2021/07/12/7704244/ser-stor-oppside-i-shippingaksjer
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Tak til Bent.
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Maersk...Better safe than sorry
https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/676987/maersk-barclays-haever-kursmal-til-13160-kr-fra-12545-kr -
Mærsk vil redesigne ocean-netværk i Vest- og Centralasien https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/677081/maersk-vil-redesigne-ocean-netvaerk-i-vest-og-centralasien
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Containerrater fortsætter op. Stiger med godt 3%... https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp
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Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
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19 t
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +6% to $40/t (TCE $16k/d, +18%)????#VLGC $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG
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AKSJEN ER BILLIG: Avance Gas er blant Christiania Securities' favorittaksjer. Bildet viser et av selskapets LPG-skip, Sirocco, på vei gjennom Panamakanalen.
Børsintervju
Thomas Hilmersen
09:59 - 20. juli
– Avance Gas er en av shippingfavorittene våre, og aksjen er fortsatt attraktivt priset, sier daglig leder Kristian Berg i Christiania Securities.
– Dette kommer til å bli en bra aksje å sitte med, og vi forventer solide utbytter og en hyggelig kursutvikling.
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