Genmab — Maj 2021

[E_L]

the press release reads 'It is estimated that in 2019 there were 4,388 diagnosed incident cases of AL amyloidosis in the five major European markets.2'

[E_L]

So, lets assume easily >5.000 for whole western europe

[E_L]

'Approximately 18,114 new patients were diagnosed with multiple myeloma and approximately 11,063 people died from the disease in the Western Europe in 2020.'

[E_L]

that is not 10%...

[Bulder]

In my notes I have MM 27,8 bn $ and Amy 6,7 bn $.

[E_L]

that is much closer in %

[Bulder]

That is 2025-numbers

[JørgenVarnæs]

counting chickens, are we?

[E_L]

in the annual report , for the US, it was 32.270 people diagnosed MM, 4000 approximate in amyloid.

[E_L]

so that is 12.5%

[E_L]

the number of chickens are important to estimate the number of eggs.

[JørgenVarnæs]

Wasn’t the issue with Amy that because of the lack of treatment very few patients were diagnosed?

[E_L]

yes, and also because the symptoms aren't very obvious

[E_L]

that is why i had thought that the % would probably be higher

[JørgenVarnæs]

So - it seems like, we will have considerably more chickens than eggs…

[E_L]

Also; as there is a lack of treatment, i think
Dara will immediately go to very high % of first line treatment

[JørgenVarnæs]

Indeed

[E_L]

indeed, considerably more chickens but even MORE eggs, I think this area will surprise positively

[E_L]

So @Bulder , I think the % market share for Dara, off that 6.7bn will be considerably higher then the % market share for MM

[Bulder]

If they could have ½ the market, it would add 3 bn to dara sales in 2025.