Genmab — April 2020

[Stockwatch1]

Our net present value (NPV) of its unpartnered products is DKK35/share, with partnerships potentially unlocking more value.

[Stockwatch1]

Catalysts: (1) 1Q20 results May 6; (2) TV P2 cervical data in 2Q20; and (3) SC Darzalex approval by mid-2020.

[Stockwatch1]

Risks include pipeline failures and COVID-19 hindering sales.

[Stockwatch1]

Valuation: As a development Biopharma, we view PharmaValues NPV as the best methodology to capture the value of the pipeline. Genmab trades on an EV/NPV of 0.75x, a 28% discount to its EU Specialty peers. CS HOLT’s warranted price is DKK1,727/share.

[E_L]

@kkjoel that HSBC, is that still the old one from a few years ago, around dkk800, or did they ever update it?

[Stockwatch1]

Target fra CS: 1950. Blue sky 2450

[kkjoel]

Nu har jeg så snit på 29 kurrsmål på 1665 (de kommer snart bagud... kursmålssætterne
)

[Stockwatch1]

sorry 2460

[kkjoel]

EL, jeg har 784 fra 09.11.2017 og 910 fra "en senere dato" (ikke konkret). Der er sikkert nogen der har bedre inf. om det herinde...

[GeorgeBest]

Stort tak for info Stockwatch

[E_L]

thanks @Stockwatch1 (and i don't really mind if it is 2450 or 2460 )

[kkjoel]

Jep, super referat af CS analyse

[GeorgeBest]

From Bloomberg: HSBC reduce target 930 updated 04.03.2020

[Bulder]

Tak Sw1

[E_L]

oh, ok, so that is their recent opinion. weird, I already consider the 1400 Dara value by CS low...

[kkjoel]

GB, you've got it all

[Stockwatch1]

CS - Lidt uddybning af blue sky: Our Blue Sky scenario gives a valuation of DKK2460. Our Blue Sky scenario is based on stronger sales of Darzalex (USD 10bn in 2025), and ofatumumab (USD 5.1bn in 2025) and 100% pipeline success.

[Bulder]

4.5 mia $ for ofa i rms i 2025 er vist pænt over konsensus. Lå det ikke omkring 1 mia?

[E_L]

ok, they appear to put hardly any value in the pipeline for the 1950 valuation, with NPV of unpartnered products at DKK35/share

[E_L]

so one would imagine a CD3/CD20 deal at reasonable terms would imediately get them to raise target