Genmab — September 2019
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Men siden du nu spørger, så rejser jeg flaget pga de gentagne fremkomster af M&A spekulationer på hvad jeg anser som et spinkelt grundlag. Desværre formår jeg ikke at anspore en balanceret diskussion af baggrund, sandsynlighed, horisont osv, da det meget hurtigt bliver til bedømmelser af min person
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Der er jo ingen debat
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God morgen
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Med hensyn til debat, så bliver en sådan kun bedre af, at man ALTID kun går efter bolden - ikke manden. Når man undlader dette kører tingene af sporet på alle sociale medier på nettet. Derfor min til tider konsekvente moderation - OG lad os så komme videre.
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I går eftermiddags hævede Carnegie anbefalingen på Genmab til Buy fra Hold og hævede kursmålet til 1587 fra 1170 - hvis I ikke har set det
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CAR skriver: We expect Genmab to report data from its three most interesting proprietary clinical projects in H2(19) and see good potential for a step-up in share price before the end of 2019 if just one of these proprietary projects has a successful read-out.
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Although the initial data will be limited, the scope of each of these three projects is likely to confer multi-billion USD opportunities in terms of peak sales.
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The lack of visibility into these catalysts at this time suggests to us that only limited value of these projects has already been discounted, and for this reason we see a favourable asymmetric risk/reward ratio from current share price levels (17% downside versus 42% upside) which we think investors should buy into at this time.
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For these early clinical proprietary projects we have made top-down forecast assumptions, rather than bottom-up forecasts. We believe enapotumab vedotin (solid tumours, initially lung cancer), GEN1029 (solid tumours) and GEN3013 (B-cell derived blood cancers) each address markets that may eventually rival Darzalex in peak sales potential in a blue-sky scenario.
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Currently, we model in peak sales potential for each of the projects at half of our Darzalex forecast, but with low probability of success (15-20%) and higher risk-adjusted clinical development costs (70% for progression to Phase II, 28% for progression to Phase III). Collectively, the three projects now account for DKK428 per share of our SOTP-derived share price target of DKK1,587
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In this update we have also adjusted our modelling of Arzerra in multiple sclerosis on the back of top-line data reported on 30 August. We have increased the probability of success to 85% (65%) but have lowered the royalty rate to 10% (12%), as confirmed by Genmab.
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Så får I ikke mere
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Rolig Solsen..Bliv endelig ved med at bringe emnet op.
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