Genmab — Januar 2019
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kkjoel - det kommer an på WACC og skat m.v. - men dit scenarie passer nok meget godt med markedsværdien p.t. Så resten af pipelinen er nul værd i det scenarie. Jeg har brugt WACC på 10% og regnet lidt "alt andet lige" - er mit bud ud fra dit scenarie
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Darzalex er en rå pengemaskine som giver Genmab en løbende indtagt de kommende 15 år og kun MM er pt kendt/indregnet. Vel og mærke penge som vælter ind af døren uden de 300 ansatte i Genmab skal brige en eneste time på Darzalex. Fatter ikke at det de 300 personer går og fedder med ikke har nogen værdi og Darzalex potentiale udenfor MM skal vel også reflekteres i kursen
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SEB: We consider Genmab a high quality biotech company and the recent impressive MAIA frontline data will further drive the uptake of Darzalex. However, all of the decline in the share price sparked by the solid tumour setback for Darzalex in May has been recovered and Genmab trades close to our fair value. We expect more investor focus on costs in relation with the Q4 2018 report and downgrade our recommendation from Buy to Hold.
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Target price lifted to DKK 1,100 (DKK 1,030)
Cost increase is not a big concern for us as long as it comes on the back of pipeline progress, but if numbers reflect a bright revenue outlook, then costs need to be accurate in order to model the value of the company. We are below consensus (FactSet) for EBIT 2019 by 20%, largely due to operating costs. Longer term we are ahead of expectations and a Hold rating seems fair for now.
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