Shipping — November 2023
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FRONTLINE: Nordea øker kursmålet til NOK 295 (222), gjentar kjøp.
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Priseksplosjon i Panamakanalen
Køene i Panamakanalen blir lengre og lengre. Nå koster det rundt 3 millioner dollar å snike i køen. https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/11/27/8063253/priseksplosjon-i-panamakanalen?internal_source=sistenytt -
DNB Market Morgenrapport
Utviklingen for flere av aksjene innen shipping har vært positiv de siste ukene og etter at Avance Gas fredag stengte på NOK 177 pr aksje er kursen opp nesten 24% siden vi tok anbefalingen opp fra Hold til Kjøp helt i starten av november. Det betyr samtidig at kursen nå har kommet opp på nivå med vårt kursmål på NOK 175 pr aksje.
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Selskapet legger i morgen frem rapporten for Q3. Her venter vi en EBITDA på USD 62 mill og ligger med det på linje med konsensus. Når det gjelder Q4 venter vi imidlertid en inntjening rundt 20% høyere enn konsensus. Selskapets eksponering er i all hovedsak inn mot spotmarkedet og kursreaksjonen vil kunne avhenge av hvilke signaler ledelsen gir vedrørende markedsutsiktene både for den gjenværende delen av året og inn i 2024.
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Panama canal announces special auction slot starting Saturday
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Tørlastindeks fortsætter op for tredje dag i streg: Steget 29 pct. på tre dage https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/1082842/torlastindeks-fortsaetter-op-for-tredje-dag-i-streg-steget-29-pct-pa-tre-dage
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Maersk sælger sidste aktier i Höegh Autolines for 1,8 mia. norske kr https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/1083120/maersk-saelger-sidste-aktier-i-hoegh-autolines-for-18-mia-norske-kr
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Nedtur for Avance Gas
Avance Gas klarte ikke helt å leve opp til forventningene i tredje kvartal. I et brennhett VLGC-marked leverer rederiet svakere tall enn i andre kvartal. https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/11/28/8061071/nedtur-for-avance-gas?internal_source=sistenytt -
"• For the fourth quarter of 2023, we estimate a TCE rate for the quarter to be ~ $70-75,000/day on a discharge-to-discharge basis.
• The board declared a dividend of $0.50 per share or $38.3 million for the third quarter 2023".
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Øystein Kalleklev, CEO of Avance Gas, commented:
“The LPG freight market continues to rip with the best market conditions since 2015. Consequently, we are also delivering our strongest Year-to-Date numbers since 2015 with Net Profit of $102 million, and the best is yet to come as we do expect that Q4 will be by far our best quarter this year.
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From September onwards the freight market has been exceptionally strong fueled by Panama congestion, strong US export growth and a very high arbitrage between LPG prices in US compared to Far East supporting freight levels.
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For the third quarter we sailed-in average Time Charter Equivalent Earnings of $55,300/day on discharge-to-discharge basis when taking into account hedging losses of $8,280/day related to our Freight Forward Agreements (FFA).
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The FFAs are utilized to hedge part of our spot exposure as an alternative to TC coverage, and we have hedged two of our spot ships at an average of approximately $50,000/day and $55,000/day for Q3 and Q4 respectively.
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With the market rallying from September, we expect average spot TCE in Q4 to be about $90-100,000/day while our TC ships are expected to generate an average TC rate of around $50,000. We therefore estimate to generate substantially higher TCE in Q4 with fleet average of around $70,000 to $75,000 on a discharge-to-discharge basis after deducting our FFA hedges.
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With the freight market rallying, TCE on a load-to-discharge basis is lower, but this timing effect will be reversed over time. Given the extended ballast legs from Asia to US Gulf Coast via Suez, we are now booking voyages with loading end of the year and are therefore also securing healthy earnings well into first quarter of next year.
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Given our strong financial position, healthy booking levels and general favorable outlook for LPG shipping, the Board has therefore decided to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share once again bringing the dividend per share for the last twelve months to $2.00 per share.”
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Key information relating to the dividend to be paid by Avance Gas Holding Ltd. for the third quarter 2023:
Dividend amount: $0.50
Declared currency: USD
Last day including right: December 6, 2023
Ex-date: December 7, 2023
Record date: December 8, 2023
Payment date: December 15, 2023
Date of Approval: November 27, 2023
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Ok regnskab fra Avance med stærk guiding og udbytte på de ventede $0,5. Dog lidt under selskabets egne forventninger. Det kan nok give en negativ åbning . Aktien er jo steget kraftigt op mod regnskabet.
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