Shipping — April 2021
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Cleaves weekly:
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LPG Carriers (BUY): After having warned of the tale of Icarus in December, VLGC spot rates plummeted 85% between January & March. The short-term outlook is dependent on regional LPG pricing amidst low inventories, but shipping is tight & likely to remain so until 2022E. The recent surge in newbuild ordering could thereafter push fleet growth into double-digits concurrent with falling demand growth. We do however believe it is too early to think about cyclical contraction & reiterate our BUY
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LNG Carriers (SELL): With limited new liquefaction capacity coming online in 2021E, only a significant increase in US export terminal utilization saves the day amidst a strong fleet growth. Thereafter, we see a challenging earnings environment for LNG carriers 2022E-2024E as fleet growth outpaces demand growth. Depending on newbuild ordering, an expected massive wave of new liquefaction capacity could propel earnings skyward from 2025E. We retain our SELL rating on the segment.
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Oil Tankers (BUY): Despite abysmal earnings, asset prices are holding up very well & the oil inventory draw cycle could soon be coming to an end. With OPEC+ increasing production in the coming months & the oil demand side responding positively towards a roll-out of COVID vaccines, we remain cautiously optimistic towards the upcoming winter market. With a very modest orderbook, we see many good years ahead for oil tankers, & believe share prices will reflect this sooner than later. We forecast ou
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r oil tanker share index potentially +73% over two years.
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Dry Bulk (BUY): An unseasonal high earnings environment & a sudden influx of capital into dry bulk shipping equities have propelled our dry bulk share index to multi-year-highs. The orderbook is record-low, & only marginal demand growth is needed to improve an already strong sentiment. Super-cycle is a strong expression, but the probability is increasing each day at the current newbuild ordering trend. The segment remains our top pick within shipping, & we forecast our share index potentially
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+165% over two years
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Capital allocation: We do a few changes to our optimal portfolio since January. We now allocate 45% towards Dry Bulk (40%), 35% towards Oil Tankers (10%), 0% towards LNG Carriers (0%), 15% towards VLGCs (20%) & 5% held in cash / balanced against short positions (30%). Our recommendations have outperformed the shipping market by 386% since 2014, returning 109%. We are still ranked #1 globally on shipping equity research by Bloomberg.
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SCFI containerrater steg 5,2% forgangne uge https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp
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Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
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15 t
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +0% to $48/t (TCE $28k/d)#VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG
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Avance fjerdemest omsatte på den norske børs i dag. Der røg en enkelt post over disken på 2.5 mio aktier. Raterne ser gunstige ud i maj og analytikerne er meget glade på LPG i disse dage.
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Mærsk opjusterer:B
olaget förväntar sig att det justerade ebitda-resultatet för helåret 2021 landar inom intervallet 13 till 15 miljarder dollar, från tidigare guidning på 8,5 till 10,5 miljarder dollar. Det fria kassaflödet för helåret väntas bli över 7 miljarder dollar, från tidigare guidning om över 3,5 miljarder. -
Mærsk opjusterer forventningerne med flere milliarder dollar: https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/674439/maersk-opjusterer-forventningerne-med-flere-milliarder-dollar-gent
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Mærsk/Jefferies: Muligvis stadig plads til yderligere opjustering https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/674445/maersk-jefferies-muligvis-stadig-plads-til-yderligere-opjustering
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Mine MPCC stiger nok i dag på meldingen fra Maersk. Det er utrolige tal som meldes ud.
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MPCC + 4,35%.
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