Shipping — April 2021
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eller Mama bear som begge har slået SP500 i perioden 2008 til 2020 https://muscularportfolios.com/faq/
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Jeg siger tak for tippet. Jeg er relativt ny. Har været i gang i 3 år, og har gjort det udemærket i den periode. Jeg har generelt tilegnet mig en del viden, men har få erfaringer inden for shippingsegmentet.
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Okay fint. Ja selvfølgeligt er det godt at have en god viden. Men det vigtigste er efter min mening at have en god diciplin og ikke afvige fra ens tradingplan. Selv folk med mega stor viden kan komme galt i byen hvis de ikke har diciplinen i orden. Et regelsæt for hvornår man køber en aktie er et must - hvilke tekniske niveauer skal være opfyldt før man køber. Det er derfor jeg mener Papa og Mama bear er gode fordi der er allerede et velafprøvet regelsæt for hvornår man skal købe og sælge.
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Teknisk analyse af BW-LPG :
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Mærsk/Jefferies: Fortsat lavt EBITDA-konsensus trods milliardløft
https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/674148/maersk-jefferies-fortsat-lavt-ebitda-konsensus-trods-milliardloft -
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Pareto Securities har oppgradert BW LPG og Avance Gas til kjøp fra hold. Kursmålet på BW LPG er oppjustert til 74 kroner fra 53 kroner, mens på Avance Gas-aksjen er nytt kursmål 50 kroner fra tidligere 32 kroner.
Det fremgår av oppdateringer mandag.
Meglerhuset skriver blant annet i notatet om BW LPG at nedturen i VLGC-markedet viste seg å bli kortere enn ventet, og at det nå går inn i en periode med bedret arbitrasje-økonomi.
Når det kommer til Avance trekkes og
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så en ventet markedsbedring frem som årsak til oppgraderingen. I tillegg skriver Pareto at en eventuell fusjon med Petredec vil skape en VLGC-gigant med 24 skip i drift og 12 VLGCer under bygging.
TDN Direkt [email protected] Infront TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
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Fearnley
Houston-Chiba USD/day 35,294 -
Cleaves weekly:
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LPG Carriers (BUY): After having warned of the tale of Icarus in December, VLGC spot rates plummeted 85% between January & March. The short-term outlook is dependent on regional LPG pricing amidst low inventories, but shipping is tight & likely to remain so until 2022E. The recent surge in newbuild ordering could thereafter push fleet growth into double-digits concurrent with falling demand growth. We do however believe it is too early to think about cyclical contraction & reiterate our BUY
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LNG Carriers (SELL): With limited new liquefaction capacity coming online in 2021E, only a significant increase in US export terminal utilization saves the day amidst a strong fleet growth. Thereafter, we see a challenging earnings environment for LNG carriers 2022E-2024E as fleet growth outpaces demand growth. Depending on newbuild ordering, an expected massive wave of new liquefaction capacity could propel earnings skyward from 2025E. We retain our SELL rating on the segment.
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Oil Tankers (BUY): Despite abysmal earnings, asset prices are holding up very well & the oil inventory draw cycle could soon be coming to an end. With OPEC+ increasing production in the coming months & the oil demand side responding positively towards a roll-out of COVID vaccines, we remain cautiously optimistic towards the upcoming winter market. With a very modest orderbook, we see many good years ahead for oil tankers, & believe share prices will reflect this sooner than later. We forecast ou
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r oil tanker share index potentially +73% over two years.
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Dry Bulk (BUY): An unseasonal high earnings environment & a sudden influx of capital into dry bulk shipping equities have propelled our dry bulk share index to multi-year-highs. The orderbook is record-low, & only marginal demand growth is needed to improve an already strong sentiment. Super-cycle is a strong expression, but the probability is increasing each day at the current newbuild ordering trend. The segment remains our top pick within shipping, & we forecast our share index potentially
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+165% over two years
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Capital allocation: We do a few changes to our optimal portfolio since January. We now allocate 45% towards Dry Bulk (40%), 35% towards Oil Tankers (10%), 0% towards LNG Carriers (0%), 15% towards VLGCs (20%) & 5% held in cash / balanced against short positions (30%). Our recommendations have outperformed the shipping market by 386% since 2014, returning 109%. We are still ranked #1 globally on shipping equity research by Bloomberg.
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SCFI containerrater steg 5,2% forgangne uge https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp
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