Shipping — April 2021
-
Given the recent rise in steel prices and improving backlog at yards, we have seen a significant increase in newbuild prices recently. It is thus fair to assume that Avance’s NB options are in the money, and that the main rational behind the equity raise is to be able to take advantage if this. Assuming Avance declares four additional newbuildings at a fixed cost of $78 each, and with newbuilding prices now standing 5-10% higher than in December, the options could potentially be $16-31m in the m
-
in the money.
However, the placement was concluded at an estimated 24% discount to our pre-equity NAV of N56/sh and at a 9% discount to GAV. This equates to an approximately $24m dilutional effect (incl. fees) for current shareholders. Given that the company has been averaging a P/NAV of 0.6x over the past few years and being priced below 0.5x just last September, it is natural that management saw and opportunity with P/NAV at 0.80x as of last close yesterday.
-
Thus, assuming the proceeds go towards declaring four additional newbuildings at a fixed cost of $78m each, the dilutional effect of raising equity below NAV is perfectly balanced with the assumed value of such options, and the deal would be neutral on NAV.
Given our positive view on the market fundamentals for VLGCs of the coming years, we believe it is an opportune moment to grow the fleet. Our only concern is that the market will peak before the assumed delivery during 2023. Thus, the impa
-
from these potential four additional newbuildings is negligible and nevertheless too far out to have any significant impact on our valuation beside a potential rise in resale values ahead of delivery.
Given the assumed neutral impact in the medium-term from the deal, we keep our target price unchanged at NOK 55. We reiterate our BUY recommendation".
-
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
41m
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +0% to $52/t (TCE $34k/d) -
Mærsk sætter skub i fragten mellem Asien og Europa https://www.proinvestor.com
/investornyt/673929/maersk-saetter-skub-i-fragten-mellem-asien-og-europa -
Finansavisen Mandagens aksjetips sender kursmål
til himmels -
LPG: F
earnley USD/day 35,660 -
Uddi1999...Der er ingen downtrend. Der er blot tilbagefald pga emissionen. Den slags er helt normalt efter sådanne.
-
Med emissionen blev opkøbsscenariet i Avance meget lidt sandsynligt. Den der har satset alene på dette sælger ud.
-
DFDS: Samlede fragtmængder steg 11,8 pct. i marts https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/673969/dfds-samlede-
fragtmaengder-steg-118-pct-i-marts -
Mærsk-rival placerer kæmpe ordre på nye
containere https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/674022/maersk-rival-placerer-kaempe-ordre-pa-nye-containere -
Flex: aftale med Cheniere om 4-5 skibe. Er det alene det, som giver aktien luft under vingerne ?
-
SCFI containerrater steg 6,84% https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Tilmeld Log ind