Shipping — November 2020
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oakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
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8 t
Svarer
@JHannisdahl
Ild
Dec BLPG FFA now reported at $90/t (TCE ~$82k/d)
Ild#LPG #VLGC #shipping $AVANCE $BWLPG $LPG
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Arctic:
LPG – US production up 2% y-o-y; VLGC rally continues!Yesterday, EIA published weekly propane and propylene production, demand and imports figures for the week ending 20 November. Weekly production came in at 2.295mbd, up by ~1% w-o-w and ~2% y-o-y.
As such, production for the week was 19% higher than the YTD low recorded in early May, but still ~7% below the all-time-high figure recorded in the first week of 2020. Inventories were down by ~0.3m barrels to ~92.6m barrels,
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which is about 6% higher than the 5yr average and ~5% higher than the level seen a year ago. Furthermore, the rally in the VLGC market continues.
Yesterday, the Baltic LPG Index increased by ~6% to USD 73.6/ton. This equates to a TCE rate of USD ~60.3k/d on our calculations, meaning that the spot market has gained USD ~7k/d since Monday. Furthermore, the FFA market is also rallying further, and on our calculations, the Cal’21 FFA is currently indicating USD ~40.3k/d, while the December contract
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In the US Gulf, recent fixtures have been concluded in the high USD 120s (USD ~69-73k/d), meaning that the premium in the Western market persists.
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Slåen...US er lukket.
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Fearnly: AST
Activity and freight levels have indeed picked up quite significantly on both sides of the Suez this week, availability is as a consequence starting to become very thin for the remainder of December in the Middle East. Baltic has jumped up more than 4 dollars from Friday, however, we continue to see the West premium remaining wide. On the back of current freight ideas from owners and last done levels, Baltic is expected to continue upwards for now. -
WEST
The western VLGC freight rates are currently skyrocketing on the back of tight vessel supply and plenty of cargo inquiries for both ends of December and the first half of January. Although we have seen only a handful of deals done since the end of last week, freight rates have increased from USD 110 to high USD 120’s on a Houston/Chiba basis. What is exacerbating the tight vessel supply is that owners and even traders who have potential relets are currently holding back before fixing anythi -
nything further in order not to over-commit their fleet and because the current discharge schedules are not firm. The market will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
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Peree...De betaler ikke udbytte for Q3. Læs eventuelt tilbage i historikken.
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BWLPG: FEARNLEY SECURITIES OPPJUSTERER KURSMÅL TIL 78 FRA 40
08:58
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Fearnley Securities oppjusterer kursmålet på BW LPG til 78 fra tidligere 40 kroner, ifølge en analyse fredag. Meglerhuset oppgraderer samtidig Avance Gas til kjøp fra tidligere hold, og oppjusterer kursmålet til 50 fra tidligere 20 kroner.Fearnley trekker frem at VLGC-ratene fortsetter å styrke seg og peker på ineffektivitet i flåten som nøkkeldriver for dette.
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Meglerhuset skriver i rapporten at hovedrisikoen fremover ligger i amerikansk LPG produksjon og i hvilken grad billige hydrokarboner vil være tilgjengelig for eksport. Samtidig trekker de frem at foreløpige produksjonsdata tyder på at nivåene er opp fra foreløpige bunner i våres, og at etterspørselssiden styrker seg.
Fearnley trekker også frem at de ser en del planlagte tørrdokkinger neste år, noe som burde motvirke eventuelt lavere LPG-produksjon.
Martin Brennmoen [email protected]
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